How to stop investing from turning into gambling

More than 95% of people betting on sports online take less money out of their betting app than they put in. Anyone who has remained invested in the S&P 500 for 20 years, however, has historically always ended up recording a positive return. Yet the two worlds are becoming increasingly similar. And that seems to be a conscious decision.

Anyone who opens a trading app today can often buy more than just shares. Prediction markets – platforms where you trade in contracts that pay out if a future event occurs – allow you to bet on almost anything: who will play the next James Bond, whether the planet will be struck by a meteorite before 2030, or whether bitcoin will rise or fall in the next five minutes. These markets are available around the clock, seven days a week. They are also experiencing explosive growth, especially in the US. The monthly trading volume has increased to over $25 billion since 2024, the number of monthly transactions has risen from roughly 240,000 to over 200 million, and the number of active users has gone up from around 4,000 to nearly 900,000 (source).

The movement is going in both directions. Betting platforms are becoming increasingly prominent as investment platforms, with positions, portfolios and price graphs. On the other hand, some foreign brokers now also offer bets on sports events and elections (source). This is not the case in Europe, as prediction markets such as Polymarket are banned or strictly regulated in several countries, while European regulators are adopting a more active approach to monitoring the line between investing and gambling.

Meanwhile, the product range is also shifting. In the first half of 2026 alone, almost 700 new ETFs were launched in the US, some 200 of which have a leveraged or inverse return – often on a single share (source). These are investment products that multiply or reverse a share's daily price movement. In the meantime, one in three options traded in the US expires on the same day (source), which is no longer investing, but rather betting on the outcome for the day in question. Yet Europe is not immune to this trend either.

Young people, in particular, are betting 'on the stock market'

The blurred lines between investing and gambling do not affect everyone equally. According to the CFA Institute, 61% of investors aged between 18 and 25 are gambling online or in betting shops (source). Another study showed that 80% of Gen Z respondents invest or are considering investing in high-risk or speculative investments "because they feel financially behind". This is compared to 75% of millennials, 66% of Generation Xers and 51% of baby boomers (source).

The feeling of being at a disadvantage is understandable. Owning a home seems a distant dream to many young people, and everyone on social media seems to become rich faster than they do. The promise of a quick profit – through crypto, options or betting – then seems more tempting than 'boring' monthly investments. Finfluencers only serve to strengthen this story. Researchers from the University of Utrecht analysed more than 400 recommendations from finfluencers and came to a sobering conclusion – people who follow their investment tips are worse off than the market average (source).

What do the numbers say?

The problem with gambling isn't that you can lose money. You run that risk with investing, too. The problem is that the expected return is negative due to the design of the product itself. The Rady School of Management followed more than 700,000 online gamblers for five years. Less than 5% took more money out of their betting app than they put in. That means more than 95% are net losers (source). Prediction markets are performing even worse than traditional gambling products, with users recording a negative return of -8% on their deposits between July 2025 and March 2026, compared to -5% for sports betting (source).

Compare that to investing. Anyone who has invested in the S&P 500 for a month since 1928 has recorded a positive return in roughly 62% of cases. Across one year, the likelihood rises to 75%, across five years to 89%, and across 10 years to 95%. And over every 20-year period, the return has historically always been positive (source). When gambling, time works against you; when investing, time works in your favour.

There's another hidden cost, too. The Gambling Away Stability study, based on transaction data from more than 60 million gamblers, shows that money flowing into gambling platforms comes directly at the expense of saving and investing. Another worrying detail is that gamblers who lost money didn't stop. Instead, they started betting even more (source). The real damage therefore lies not only in the lost bet, but in the compounded return on the investment that was never made.

And then there are the fraudsters

Where there is a dream of making a quick buck, fraudsters are never far away. In 2025, Belgians lost almost €40 million to investment fraud, one of the most common types of fraud (source). Victims are lured to fake platforms through social media or text messages, see fake returns and are encouraged to make deposits. As soon as they want to take out their 'profit', unexpected fees suddenly appear, and the money goes directly to the fraudsters. Pump-and-dump practices are also flourishing: anyone looking to place bets and find the next 'golden' share or coin is an easy target.

Where exactly is the line?

At the heart of the matter is this – the gambler hopes for something, and the investor owns something. If you buy a share or tracker, you acquire a piece of companies that provide products or services, (are able to) make profits and may pay dividends. That value creation accumulates year after year. A bet doesn't create anything: what someone wins, another loses, less the platform commission.

In practice, however, the line is always somewhat blurred. You can also gamble using an ordinary securities account, by buying and selling shares on a daily basis, going all-in on one talked-about share, buying leverage products you don't understand or trading based on a tip you saw on TikTok. Here are a few questions you can ask yourself: Do I know what I own and why? Do I have a horizon of years, or am I hoping to make a profit by Friday? Could I miss this amount without it keeping me up at night? And most importantly, am I looking for a return or a kick? Investing shouldn't feel like going to a casino.

How to keep a cool head

The good news is that boring investments are part of an approach you can easily stick to. Spread your investments across regions, sectors and asset classes. Invest regularly (e.g. monthly) with a fixed amount to ensure emotion doesn't come into play when you are investing. Look at your portfolio every quarter instead of every day. And hold your investments for long enough: time will even out the peaks and troughs, even when the world seems to be on fire.

If you're itching to 'play the market', then it doesn't have to be a disaster as long as you see it for what it is. Some investors deliberately keep a small percentage of their wealth – money that they won't miss – to one side as 'play money', which is kept strictly separate from their long-term portfolio. However, you should never confuse that fund with your pension pot or your savings for other long-term plans. As Warren Buffett put it, the stock market transfers money from the impatient to the patient. On gambling sites, it's even easier: money almost always moves in the same direction – away from you.

Before investing, be sure to read up on the key features and risks of financial instruments.

Prefer to invest without feeling like you're in a casino?

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